Thursday, March 20, 2014

Increasingly Progressive.

Not a description of a developing, forward leaning candidate.  The model runs have been consistent over the past few days.  The GFS has been consistently drier than others.  Even the forecasts in the mid and long term have been relatively consistent.  And now we are five days out from round one, which will play out in two parts.  But first, the next few days.  Northwest breezes have picked up again this afternoon, and will keep our air cooling.  Almost 70F today, mid 60's tomorrow, maybe even low 60's for the weekend.  No real fog issues showing.  (edit: oops, looks like there will be fogy mornings through the weekend- bummer) So, yeah, kind of nice.  It probably won't be until Monday that we feel the warm air pump, with temps reaching back to the 70s.  Round 1, Part 1 arrives late Tuesday.  It will  bring some cooler air, but how cool, and how wet, depends on how far south it dives.  And really, no matter how wet we get, it won't be very wet.  Might not get wet at all.  Odds increase with Part 2.

Winter evenings have come to an end.  Time to prepare for spring light.

Anyway, right now looks to me like showers will extend as far south as San Francisco.  But this is still five days away, so don't hold me to that.  Decent confidence the northern portion of the state will see light and moderate rain.  A few inches in Tahoe.  And, the storm will bring with it a cold front.  It will not carry with it a whole lot of water and clears out east through Wednesday, just as Round 2 pushes onshore, wetter and deeper than the first.  I think we will see some light rain, especially on the north end of Monterey Bay, on Wednesday night or Thursday morning.  All that pushes east with high pressure setting up Friday and Saturday (the 28th).  Still pretty light accumulations here in Santa Cruz.  Tahoe could add up six inches to a foot.

Here is the thing.  As I look beyond 7 days, it looks like the progressive pattern will continue and shift further south.  Now, understand, this is pretty much pure fantasy, but is the last several day's of consistent model runs hold true, here is kind of what it will look like.  Sunday arrives Round 2.  A wet and colder storm arrives, but is kept from crushing us by the huge high in place.  Northern portions of the state get a good inch from the system.  We might start measuring tenth of an inch by this time.  Moves slowly north and east Monday afternoon.  Showers continue in the north and along the Crest through mid day Tuesday.  Some more snow for Tahoe.  Round 3 starts to arrive on the scene Tuesday night, April 1st.  Winds up off the coast and moves on shore Wednesday through Friday.  Moderate rain here, heavier north.  Cold air pushes in through the end of the system.  Might need to check the heating system.  Ours has been off for months.  Anyway.  Like I said, all fantasy.  But looks like high pressure would nose in after that for the weekend of the 5th.

No comments:

Post a Comment